Did Jesus rise from the dead?

The claim under examination: Jesus was crucified, died, and was later raised, and his earliest followers encountered him alive.

Standard · preponderance of the evidence, not proof

◆ The case for

The crucifixion is close to certain, and the resurrection claim is extremely early (the creed in 1 Corinthians 15).
Named witnesses, to individuals and groups, treated as tradition already received.
A persecutor and a skeptic switched sides (Paul and James).
One event explains the whole pattern at once, rather than needing a separate cause for each piece.

◇ The case against

Grief visions can be vivid, though this strains to explain group and skeptic experiences.
Legend, cognitive dissonance, combined causes — the strongest secular account stacks several ordinary mechanisms.
The empty tomb is disputed; crucified bodies were often left unburied.
Low prior probability. "Died for a lie" only proves sincerity, and a skeptic can rationally decline a miracle.

The verdict

DisprovenUnlikelyPlausibleStrongly supportedEstablished

The core facts, the death, the early appearance-belief, Paul, and James, are strongly supported. The resurrection is the strongest single explanation of them and fits better than any one natural alternative, but it is not laboratory certainty, and a principled naturalist can still withhold. We follow the evidence; we do not use the word proven.

If you read nothing else

Something happened to Jesus.

He was crucified, as solid as ancient history gets. Very soon after, people who had every reason to give up were insisting he was alive, and two of them had been on the other side. Natural explanations each take a bite; none swallows the whole thing cleanly. The resurrection is the best explanation on offer. Not proven. Just, on the evidence, the way I would bet.